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7th Sea 2nd Edition Likely Number of Raises

Saturday, June 25th, 2016

7th Sea 2nd edition uses an interesting mechanism to decide how well a character does with an action.  I wanted to have some idea of how many raises a starting character is likely to have depending on their Trait, Skill and any bonus dice they might get.  So I ran some simulations earlier using a little python script I threw together.  A starting character can have traits from 2 to 5 and skills from 0 to 3 which restricted the simulation somewhat. I also catered for up to 3 bonus dice. With large numbers of dice in a roll some sets were just too complicated to find the number of raises for in a reasonable time so weren’t resolved.  For each Trait/Skill/Bonus combination I ran 100,000 simulated rolls.

If I get some time I’ll take another look at the simulation to see if I can reduce those.

Trait Skill Bonus Average Number of Raises
2 0 0 0.65
2 0 1 1.1
2 0 2 1.6
2 0 3 2.0
2 1 0 1.2
2 1 1 1.6
2 1 2 2.0
2 1 3 2.5
2 2 0 1.6
2 2 1 2.1
2 2 2 2.5
2 2 3 3.0
2 3 0 2.3
2 3 1 2.7
2 3 2 3.2
2 3 3 3.7
3 0 0 1.1
3 0 1 1.6
3 0 2 2.0
3 0 3 2.5
3 1 0 1.6
3 1 1 2.0
3 1 2 2.5
3 1 3 3.0
3 2 0 2.1
3 2 1 2.5
3 2 2 3.0
3 2 3 3.4
3 3 0 2.7
3 3 1 3.2
3 3 2 3.7
3 3 3 4.1
4 0 0 1.6
4 0 1 2.1
4 0 2 2.5
4 0 3 3.0
4 1 0 2.1
4 1 1 2.5
4 1 2 3.0
4 1 3 3.4
4 2 0 2.5
4 2 1 3.0
4 2 2 3.4
4 2 3 3.9
4 3 0 3.2
4 3 1 3.7
4 3 2 4.1
4 3 3 4.6
5 0 0 2.1
5 0 1 2.5
5 0 2 3.0
5 0 3 3.4
5 1 0 2.5
5 1 1 3.0
5 1 2 3.4
5 1 3 4.0
5 2 0 3.0
5 2 1 3.4
5 2 2 3.9
5 2 3 4.3
5 3 0 3.7
5 3 1 4.1
5 3 2 4.6
5 3 3 5.0

Detailed Breakdown of Rolls

A more detailed breakdown of the original simulated rolls as percentages.

Trait Skill Bonus Number of Raises Number of Skipped Rolls
      0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2 0 0 36 63 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 8 75 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 2 1 42 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 3 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 0 8 75 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 41 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 2 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 3 0 4 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 41 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 1 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 5 45 45 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 3 0 1 23 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 0 0 6 62 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 1 0 1 33 56 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0 12 57 28 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 3 0 0 4 38 47 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 8 75 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 1 1 41 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 2 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 0 4 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 0 1 41 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 1 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 2 0 5 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 3 0 1 22 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 0 0 16 64 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 0 4 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 2 0 1 22 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 3 0 0 9 45 39 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 0 0 1 33 56 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 1 0 0 12 57 28 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 2 0 0 4 38 47 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 3 0 0 1 19 52 25 3 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 0 1 42 54 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 1 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 2 0 5 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0 1 23 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 1 0 5 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 2 0 1 23 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 3 0 0 9 45 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 2 0 0 4 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 2 1 0 1 22 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 2 2 0 0 9 45 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 2 3 0 0 3 28 49 19 2 0 0 0 0 0
4 3 0 0 0 12 57 28 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 3 1 0 0 4 38 47 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
4 3 2 0 0 1 19 52 25 3 0 0 0 0 0
4 3 3 0 0 0 7 41 41 10 1 0 0 0 535
5 0 0 0 16 64 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 1 0 5 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 2 0 1 23 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 3 0 0 9 45 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 0 0 4 44 46 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 1 0 1 22 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 2 0 0 9 45 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 3 0 0 3 28 49 19 2 0 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 1 23 55 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 9 45 39 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2 2 0 0 3 28 49 18 2 0 0 0 0 0
5 2 3 0 0 1 13 45 34 7 0 0 0 0 466
5 3 0 0 0 4 39 47 10 1 0 0 0 0 0
5 3 1 0 0 1 19 52 25 3 0 0 0 0 0
5 3 2 0 0 0 7 41 41 10 1 0 0 0 531
5 3 3 0 0 0 2 25 47 22 3 0 0 0 769

If you’d prefer that as the actual totals…

Trait Skill Bonus Number of Raises
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2 0 0 35889 63110 1001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 1 8418 75451 16026 105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 2 1239 41614 54107 3033 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 3 153 15799 63769 19793 484 2 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 0 8352 75336 16201 111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 1 1192 41226 54479 3095 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 2 107 15810 63562 20039 482 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 3 10 4478 44314 45834 5284 80 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 0 1288 41185 54457 3064 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 1 128 15585 63679 20113 490 5 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 10 4613 44588 45432 5291 66 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 3 0 945 22782 54944 20117 1199 13 0 0 0 0
2 3 0 22 6438 62021 30235 1279 5 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 1 1 1387 32666 56345 9380 220 1 0 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 241 12376 56595 28458 2283 47 0 0 0 0
2 3 3 0 28 3650 38419 47037 10329 532 5 0 0 0
3 0 0 8376 75147 16380 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 1 1307 41417 54080 3186 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 2 139 15682 63726 20008 445 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 3 11 4407 44306 46012 5193 71 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 0 1251 41184 54467 3089 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 1 133 15787 63756 19862 462 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 2 10 4543 44129 45864 5387 67 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 3 0 983 22355 55457 20062 1135 8 0 0 0 0
3 2 0 141 15673 63729 19911 546 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 1 7 4461 44171 45824 5473 64 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 2 0 963 22423 55341 20090 1171 12 0 0 0 0
3 2 3 0 163 8916 45470 38804 6408 239 0 0 0 0
3 3 0 1 1371 32773 56268 9374 212 1 0 0 0 0
3 3 1 0 214 12255 56944 28168 2391 28 0 0 0 0
3 3 2 0 31 3695 38484 46860 10406 520 4 0 0 0
3 3 3 0 2 930 18902 51654 25369 3045 97 1 0 0
4 0 0 1248 41530 54211 2998 13 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 1 145 15626 63587 20146 495 1 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 2 11 4552 44356 45694 5319 67 1 0 0 0 0
4 0 3 0 967 22506 55156 20219 1140 12 0 0 0 0
4 1 0 127 15507 63977 19897 491 1 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 1 1 4507 44084 46020 5307 81 0 0 0 0 0
4 1 2 0 929 22524 55421 19996 1122 8 0 0 0 0
4 1 3 0 140 8886 45474 38758 6513 226 3 0 0 0
4 2 0 6 4465 43990 46043 5411 85 0 0 0 0 0
4 2 1 0 957 22353 55295 20234 1153 8 0 0 0 0
4 2 2 0 160 9000 45013 38901 6676 248 2 0 0 0
4 2 3 0 16 2717 27850 49047 18610 1733 27 0 0 0
4 3 0 0 239 12276 56887 28261 2293 44 0 0 0 0
4 3 1 0 44 3630 38400 47009 10400 513 4 0 0 0
4 3 2 0 6 876 18937 51842 25172 3081 85 1 0 0
4 3 3 0 0 199 7015 40830 40459 10130 819 12 1 0
5 0 0 117 15577 63678 20133 493 2 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 1 8 4516 44387 45853 5161 75 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 2 1 948 22519 55043 20274 1205 10 0 0 0 0
5 0 3 0 146 8846 45105 39121 6565 215 2 0 0 0
5 1 0 7 4436 44211 45940 5327 79 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 1 0 924 22461 55211 20288 1106 10 0 0 0 0
5 1 2 0 166 8891 45247 38806 6672 218 0 0 0 0
5 1 3 0 25 2810 27571 49141 18619 1798 36 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 950 22572 55192 20158 1118 10 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 164 8950 45128 38901 6617 239 1 0 0 0
5 2 2 0 16 2763 27840 49114 18483 1747 37 0 0 0
5 2 3 0 0 644 13422 44807 33591 6657 407 6 0 0
5 3 0 0 26 3645 38533 46871 10408 508 9 0 0 0
5 3 1 0 1 908 18949 51976 25012 3057 97 0 0 0
5 3 2 0 0 194 6883 41237 40442 9899 796 18 0 0
5 3 3 0 0 35 2112 24456 47009 22094 3343 180 2 0

 

 

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